National Repository of Grey Literature 2 records found  Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Introducing stochasticity into the energy system model Times-CZ - a reflection of a war-related extreme environment
Otruba, Šimon ; Rečka, Lukáš (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
This thesis introduces stochastic elements into the TIMES-CZ energy system model focusing on the impact of extreme events such as pandemic or recent war in Ukraine. The objective is to improve the model's precision in the face of these market uncertainties. Natural gas prices and European Union Allowance (EUA) prices, after a selection process, are represented as random variables allowing for probabilistic forecasting. These variables are derived from an analysis that combines model-based forecasts, which also include external predictions. The results of this comprehensive analysis are then integrated into the TIMES-CZ model. The correctness of these results is validated using sensitivity analysis, which evaluates the impact of results with uncertain parameters on the model's output. The findings highlight the importance of including uncertainty in energy systems modelling and could have implications for energy planning and decision-making in uncertain contexts. Keywords TIMES-CZ Model, Stochasticity, Energy System Modelling, Uncertainty Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis JEL Classification C12, C33, G21, L25, M31 Title Introducing stochasticity into the energy system model Times-CZ - a reflection of a war- related extreme environment
Modeling population dynamics of plants and possibilities of connecting population data with data on environmental conditions
Hrušková, Karolína ; Münzbergová, Zuzana (advisor) ; Dostálek, Tomáš (referee)
Dynamics of plant populations is influenced by climate and habitat conditions. To understand performance of plant populations and to find out their possible future development, it is important to identify these drivers and to describe their impact. Based on data of performance of individuals in a population, models are used to predict the population development. Nowadays there are efforts to include environmental drivers and climate changes into population models, which make estimations of population development more exact and realistic. It is important to define a suitable management on locations with endangered species and to target the management on critical transitions between life stages which impact the population development the most. These models indicate the most vulnerable transition stages of a life cycle. This bachelor thesis is a literature review which provides a brief summary of the current population models and it is trying to give their brief characteristics. It also provides examples of drivers which influence the dynamics of plant populations and describes possibilities of connecting environmental data and species population dynamics. The final part of the thesis briefly explains the research which is being done on the species Minuartia smejkalii. The influence of climate and...

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